While the vaccine presents tactical upside, the pandemic itself represents a structural shift. Over the past decade the GSCI is down c.60%, erasing 3 decades of gains. We believe this streak of poor returns has reached an end in the aftermath of the Covid crisis. Of course, negative oil prices are hard to top, and it’s easy – and largely accurate – to present the 2021 commodity outlook as a V-shaped vaccine trade. What we think is key, however, is that this recovery in commodity prices will actually be the beginning of a much longer structural bull market for commodities driven by three key themes.
18 Nov 2020 | 10:57am GMT | Research | Commodities - Jeffrey Currie and others
In our view the structural bull market for gold is not over and will resume next year as inflation expectations move higher, the US dollar weakens and EM retail demand continues to recover. Near term, however, it may be difficult for gold to generate a meaningful momentum in either a higher or lower direction.
13 Nov 2020 | 7:01am GMT | Research | Commodities - Mikhail Sprogis and others
Michele Della Vigna of Goldman Sachs Research explains his latest “carbonomics” research and how climate change is reshaping the energy industry through technological innovation and capital markets pressure.