Portfolio Strategy Research

GOAL Outlook for 2021: Rotation inoculation — remain pro-risk

We are pro-risk for 2021 and expect the pro-cyclical rotation across and within assets to continue, supported by a strong economic recovery from the COVID-19 shock. With a favourable growth/inflation mix and still elevated equity risk premia we are OW equities and UW bonds. With tighter credit spreads we are N credit but still see opportunities to move down in quality. Over a 12m horizon we are OW commodities (N for 3m), supported in particular by a bullish oil view.

20 Nov 2020 | 5:46pm GMT | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Christian Mueller-Glissmann and others

Also read: US Weekly Kickstart: Investor response to our 2021 US Equity Outlook (20 Nov 2020)

 Webcast Replay: GOAL Outlook 2021 - Rotation Inoculation

with Christian Mueller-Glissman, Peter Oppenheimer, Kamakshya Trivedi, Praveen Korapaty, Damien Courvalin and Amanda Lynam.

 
 
 
 
 
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Call materials

 

Global Strategy Outlook: The Bull Run in 2021

We remain confident about the global economic recovery in 2021, expecting global real GDP growth of 6%. Our rates team forecast steepening yield curves and higher break-even inflation from Q2. Our commodities team emphasise that all major commodity markets are in deficit, and they expect rising prices over the next 12 months.

12 Nov 2020 | 5:53am GMT | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Peter Oppenheimer and others


  Webcast Replay: Global Equity Strategy Outlook 2021

with Peter Oppenheimer, David Kostin, Tim Moe, and Chris Hussey.

 
 
 
 
 
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REGIONAL STRATEGY OUTLOOKS

US | Europe | Asia-Pacific | China | Japan | India

View more on our Portfolio Strategy Outlook page >

ASSET ALLOCATION RECOMMENDATIONS

  3m 12m
EQUITY OW OW
S&P 500 (USD) N N
STOXX Europe 600 (EUR) N N
MSCI Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan (USD) N N
Topix (Yen) N N

  3m 12m
10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BONDS UW UW
US UW UW
Germany OW OW
Japan N N
UK - -

  3m 12m
CORPORATE BONDS N N
Bloomberg-Barclays US IG N N
Bloomberg-Barclays US HY OW N
iBoxx EUR IG N N
BAML EUR HY OW N
JPMorgan EMBI Div OW OW

  3m 12m
CASH OW OW

  3m 12m
COMMODITIES N OW

ASSET ALLOCATION

Exchanges at GS: Markets Update: The Bull Run in 2021
20 November 2020

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Goldman Sachs Research remains confident about the global recovery in 2021, says Peter Oppenheimer, the firm’s chief global equity strategist. “We are optimistic for equity markets, risk assets and indeed the economy,” Oppenheimer says in this episode, and goes on to explain why he thinks the current bull market is transitioning from a “hope” phase to a “growth” phase. “As we move forwards in time, we do expect to see more even returns globally – less so than extreme outperformance of the US,” says Oppenheimer. “We would expect people to be diversifying more by country, region and by industry.”

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