GOAL Outlook for 2021: Rotation inoculation — remain pro-risk

We are pro-risk for 2021 and expect the pro-cyclical rotation across and within assets to continue, supported by a strong economic recovery from the COVID-19 shock. With a favourable growth/inflation mix and still elevated equity risk premia we are OW equities and UW bonds. 

20 Nov 2020 | 5:46pm GMT | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Christian Mueller-Glissmann and others

Also read: US Weekly Kickstart: Investor response to our 2021 US Equity Outlook (20 Nov 2020)

 Webcast Replay: GOAL Outlook 2021 - Rotation Inoculation

with Christian Mueller-Glissman, Peter Oppenheimer, Kamakshya Trivedi, Praveen Korapaty, Damien Courvalin and Amanda Lynam.

0:00 / 57:16
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Call materials


 Research Unplugged: GS Commodity Outlook 2021

with Jeff Currie, Damien Courvalin, Samantha Dart, Nicholas Snowdon, Mikhail Sprogis & Chris Hussey.

0:00 / 58:44
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Call Materials

 Research Unplugged: 2021 Global Credit Strategy Outlook

with Lotfi Karoui, Amanda Lynam, Frank Jarman and Chris Hussey.

0:00 / 45:51
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Call Materials


Asia Pacific Energy: Oil: Initiate on Chinese oil majors; focus on FCF sustainability; Buy CNOOC, Sell Sinopec

Chinese oil majors are moving into a phase of both higher investment and higher production growth. As such, cost structure is a key differentiator for sustainable FCF generation. We believe CNOOC’s highly competitive new projects portfolio offers uniquely low-cost growth as oil prices rise and non-OPEC production growth stalls. Even in a spot oil price scenario, we find that CNOOC can generate positive FCF post dividend, and its implied cash flow multiples are near the bottom of their 10-year historical range. We expect Sinopec shares to underperform our coverage due to higher downstream exposure and a challenging industry positioning, leading into a subdued earnings/returns outlook. We therefore initiate coverage of the Chinese oil majors with a Buy on CNOOC, a Sell on Sinopec and a Neutral on PetroChina.

22 Nov 2020 | 7:12pm SGT | 74pg | Research | Equity - Nikhil Bhandari and others

China Energy: Gas: Positioned for mid-decade demand acceleration - Initiate on China Gas distributors; Buy ENN, China Gas

We believe gas distributors, sitting at the downstream of the China gas value chain, are well positioned to benefit 1) near-term from the upstream gas-on-gas competition (2021-24) due to reforms liberalizing China's gas market, likely resulting in increased gas supply and lowered gas cost; 2) long-term from the potential mid-decade coal-to-gas acceleration (2025-26) that could readily translate into meaningful sales increase for distributors; and 3) from new profit drivers starting to gain momentum given the narrowed pricing gap between coal and oil/gas.

22 Nov 2020 | 6:02pm HKT | 52pg | Research | Equity - Amber Cai and others

BUY: CNOOC, ENN, China Gas
NEUTRAL: PetroChina, Kunlun Energy, China Resources Gas
SELL: Sinopec

Asia Economics Analyst: China’s digital yuan and its macro implications

China has moved to the frontier of sovereign digital currency development in 2020. In April, the People’s Bank of China launched pilot programs for a digital currency with four major state banks. Since then, it has announced expansion of this pilot in several Chinese cities, recently conducting a trial with nearly 50,000 households in Shenzhen.

17 Nov 2020 | 7:41pm HKT | 17pg | Research | Economics - Andrew Tilton

China Financial Services: Digital Currency: Reinventing the Yuan for the Digital Age

China is at the forefront of digital currency development and will likely be one of the first countries to issue a sovereign digital currency (known as “DC/EP”). As a gradual replacement for physical cash, in the early stages DC/EP will facilitate small payments for consumables such as meals, groceries and transport, but over time will expand to larger and more complex, value-added services such as government subsidies and cross-border payments.

17 Nov 2020 | 7:15pm CST | 81pg | Research | Equity - Shuo Yang, Ph.D. and others