GOAL Outlook for 2021: Rotation inoculation — remain pro-risk

We are pro-risk for 2021 and expect the pro-cyclical rotation across and within assets to continue, supported by a strong economic recovery from the COVID-19 shock. With a favourable growth/inflation mix and still elevated equity risk premia we are OW equities and UW bonds. 

20 Nov 2020 | 5:46pm GMT | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Christian Mueller-Glissmann and others

Also read: US Weekly Kickstart: Investor response to our 2021 US Equity Outlook (20 Nov 2020)

 Webcast Replay: GOAL Outlook 2021 - Rotation Inoculation

with Christian Mueller-Glissman, Peter Oppenheimer, Kamakshya Trivedi, Praveen Korapaty, Damien Courvalin and Amanda Lynam.

0:00 / 57:16
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Canada: From Virus to Vaccine

Our 2021 full-year GDP growth estimate of 4.8% is modestly above consensus expectations but really a tale of two halves. We are somewhat negative on the winter with a slowdown in growth to +3% in Q4 and 0% in Q1 as we expect further virus spread with temperatures set to drop lower. 

20 Nov 2020 | 6:35PM EST | Research | Economics - Daan Struyven and others

 Research Unplugged: GS Commodity Outlook 2021

with Jeff Currie, Damien Courvalin, Samantha Dart, Nicholas Snowdon, Mikhail Sprogis and Chris Hussey.

0:00 / 58:44
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 Research Unplugged: 2021 Global Credit Strategy Outlook

with Lotfi Karoui, Amanda Lynam, Frank Jarman and Chris Hussey.

0:00 / 45:51
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Mutual Fundamentals: Savvy stock selection

Stock selection has been a key source of mutual fund alpha in 2020. The share of mutual funds outpacing their benchmarks this year is the highest since 2017 (41%). The most overweight mutual fund stock positions (GSTHMFOW) have outperformed the most underweight positions (GSTHMFUW) by 25 percentage points since the March trough (79% vs. 54%).

19 Nov 2020 | 7:29pm EST | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Arjun Menon, CFA and others

Hedge Fund Trend Monitor: From alpha to beta

Hedge funds increased their positions in Financials during 3Q, part of a small shift toward Value. Alongside sharp market rotations, funds are increasingly relying on market beta to support returns.

19 Nov 2020 | 4:43pm EST | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Ben Snider and others

Also read
A Snapshot of Healthcare Positioning: Mutual Fund and Hedge Fund HC Holdings Entering 4Q20


Healthcare: Administration announces Most Favored Nations model and Rebate Rule

On Friday afternoon (11/20), CMS/HHS officially released drug pricing policies that had been reported earlier this week (link). The first, the Most Favored Nation ("MFN") Model (link), is a mandatory nationwide model that tests aligning payment for Medicare Part B drugs with international prices.

20 Nov 2020 | 7:06PM EST | 4pg | Research | Equity - Robert P. Jones and others