US Daily: Pent-Up Savings and Inflation After World War 2 (Nicolae)

Research | Economics | By Jan Hatzius and others
  • Rationing and supply restrictions during World War 2 provide the closest available analogue in modern US history to the barriers to spending during the pandemic. Then as now, restrictions caused households to build up substantial excess savings. Official statistics show a large spike in inflation after the war, which has provoked concern that inflation might increase sharply after the pandemic as consumers spend their pent-up savings.

  • We estimate that households accumulated excess savings during the war totaling nearly 40% of GDP, roughly four times as large as our estimate of excess savings from the pandemic. Historical data suggest that consumers spent about 20% of their excess savings between 1946 and 1949, which resulted in the saving rate falling below its normal level for several years. Spending on durable goods, the products that were least available due to wartime restrictions, increased the most rapidly. This episode adds to our confidence that pent-up savings will contribute to a consumption boom starting in mid-2021.

  • Although the official statistics show a large spike in inflation (~12pp) over 1946–47, the postwar experience is less worrisome than it might seem for two reasons. First, the rise in inflation primarily reflects the removal of wartime wage and price controls and a spike in food prices due to shortages, and a core inflation measure adjusted for price controls rose more modestly (~1.5pp). Second, at that time the Fed was largely prevented by an agreement with the Treasury Department from raising interest rates in response, and inflation expectations were less well anchored than they are today.

Pent-Up Savings and Inflation After World War 2

Rationing and supply restrictions during World War 2 provide the closest available analogue in modern US history to the reduced spending opportunities available during the pandemic. In today’s note, we take a closer look at the consumption boom and inflation spike that followed the end of the war.

During the war, rationing and restrictions on durable goods production drove the personal saving rate to over four times its pre-war level (Exhibit 1, left).[1] Rapid personal income growth during the war also boosted saving, and by 1945, households’ cumulative excess savings—the amount by which the actual saving rate exceeded the long-run postwar level from 1941-1945—amounted to about 40% of GDP, roughly four times as large as our estimate of excess savings from the pandemic. After the end of the war, the saving rate fell quickly as spending restrictions were lifted.[2]

Exhibit 1: Both the Personal Saving Rate and Bank Deposits as a Share of GDP Declined After World War 2

Source: Department of Commerce, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Consumers sharply increased their spending on durable goods, which were least available during the war due to supply restrictions (Exhibit 2).[3] The personal saving rate fell several percentage points below the level to which it eventually normalized in the postwar period and remained there for a few years, implying that households spent about 20% of their accumulated excess savings (~8% of GDP) by the end of 1949.[4] Bank deposits also declined sharply immediately after the war by about 13% of GDP over three years (Exhibit 1, right), consistent with spending of pent-up savings, although this also partly reflects increased investment in non-deposit assets such as housing, a trend that continued for many years afterward while deposits continued to decrease.[5]

The postwar increase in consumer spending on previously restricted goods adds to our confidence that a mid-year consumption boom is coming and will likely be driven by spending in the virus-sensitive services that were least available during the pandemic. In fact, one reason to think that consumers might even spend a larger share of their pent-up savings after the end of the pandemic than they did after World War 2 is that many people feared a coming economic crash after the end of the war.[6]

Exhibit 2: Consumption Boomed After World War 2 as Restrictions Were Lifted, Especially on Durables

Source: Department of Commerce, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Next, we take a closer look at inflation after the end of the war. Official statistics report a sharp spike in headline CPI inflation from about 1% in 1945 to a peak of nearly 20% in early 1947 (Exhibit 3), but this likely overstates the true underlying inflation rate for several reasons. First, much of the increase in inflation immediately after the end of the war reflects high food inflation due to shortages, rather than a jump in core inflation.[7] Second, the spike in the official measure of inflation in 1946–47 is likely overstated due to the lifting of wartime wage and price controls. During the war, official statistics substantially understated the prices that consumers actually paid on the black market or in informal transactions, so the removal of price controls in 1946 and 1947 overstates the true increase.

Exhibit 3: The Postwar Spike in the Official Inflation Numbers Largely Reflects Food Inflation and the Removal of Wartime Wage and Price Controls

Source: Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Analyses by Friedman and Schwartz and by Mills and Rockoff use two different methods to adjust the official inflation statistics for wartime price controls and more accurately measure the prices actually paid by consumers.[8] Both methods find that the true inflation rate was higher than the official rate during the war and substantially lower than the official rate over 1946–47, when the wage and price controls were lifted. Over 1945–1947, while the official headline CPI inflation rate rose by about 12pp, the price-control-adjusted annual CPI inflation rate excluding food rose by only about 1.5pp (Exhibit 4).

Exhibit 4: The Postwar Increase in Core Inflation Looks More Moderate After Adjusting for the Removal of Wartime Price Controls

Source: Department of Labor, Mills & Rockoff (1987), Friedman & Schwartz (1982), Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

The adjusted inflation data suggest that the postwar inflation experience is less worrisome than it might initially seem. Moreover, other reassuring differences suggest that the effect of a consumer spending boom on inflation is likely to be more muted today: after World War 2, the Fed was largely prevented by an agreement with the Treasury from raising interest rates in response to high inflation, and inflation expectations were less well-anchored than they are today.

Laura Nicolae

1 ^ Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz (1963), A Monetary History of the United States, pg. 559; S. Morris Livingston (1943), “Wartime Savings and Post-war Markets,” Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis, September 1943.
2 ^ Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz (1963), A Monetary History of the United States, pg. 581; S. Morris Livingston (1943), “Wartime Savings and Post-war Markets.” During the war, most household savings were very liquid—in Treasury bonds, deposits, or currency—which likely contributed to a faster spending after the war.
3 ^ Morris Cohen (1952), “Postwar Consumption Functions,” The Review of Economics and Statistics; Clement Winston and Mabel A. Smith (1950), “Income Sensitivity of Consumption Expenditures,” Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis, January 1950; Office of Business Economics (1950), “The Economy in Adjustment: A Review of 1949,” Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis, February 1950.
4 ^ There is some disagreement between the official personal saving rate and the findings of Friedman and Schwartz (1963), who write that consumers spent half their accumulated excess savings (as measured by the ratio of money balances to 9 months’ income) over 1946–1948. However, as explained above, the decline in money balances likely overstates the decline in saving, since investment in non-deposit assets increased after the war.
5 ^ The decline in deposits over 1941–1943 likely reflects a shift toward saving in Treasury war bonds, driven in large part by wartime bond drives. For example, J.P. Cavin (1945), “Aspects of Wartime Consumption,” American Economic Review; S. Morris Livingston (1943), “Wartime Savings and Post-war Markets.”
6 ^ Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz (1963), A Monetary History of the United States, pg. 560; L. R. Klein (1946), “A Post-Mortem on Transition Predictions of National Product,” Journal of Political Economy; Woytinsky (1947), “What Was Wrong in Forecasts of Postwar Depression?”, Journal of Political Economy; S. Morris Livingston (1943), “Wartime Savings and Post-war Markets.”
7 ^ Bureau of Labor Statistics (2014), “One Hundred Years of Price Change: The Consumer Price Index and the American Inflation Experience,” April 2014; Office of Business Economics (1947), “The Economy in Reconversion: A Review of 1946,” Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis, February 1947.
8 ^ Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz (1982), “Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975,” p. 107; Geofrey Mills and Hugh Rockoff (1987), “Compliance with Price Controls in the United States and the United Kingdom During World War II,” The Journal of Economic History 47(1), March 1987. Mills and Rockoff (1987) use wages to project the true level of prices, since most evasion of wage controls occurred through employers promoting their employees to higher job classifications rather than misreporting their wages. Friedman and Schwartz project the price index using nominal income, since it abstracts from prices of specific goods and services. Mills and Rockoff find that in the U.K., where wages were not controlled during the war, the wage index generally outperformed nominal income in predicting prices.

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

Disclosure Appendix

Reg AC

We, Jan Hatzius, Alec Phillips, David Mericle, Spencer Hill, CFA, Daan Struyven, Joseph Briggs, Blake Taylor, Ronnie Walker and Laura Nicolae, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm's business or client relationships.

Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division.

Disclosures

Regulatory disclosures

Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations

See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs trades or may trade as a principal in debt securities (or in related derivatives) of issuers discussed in this report.

The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage.  Analyst compensation:  Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues.  Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director or advisor of any company in the analyst's area of coverage.  Non-U.S. Analysts:  Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2241 or FINRA Rule 2242 restrictions on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts. 

Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States

The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd and its affiliates are not authorised deposit-taking institutions (as that term is defined in the Banking Act 1959 (Cth)) in Australia and do not provide banking services, nor carry on a banking business, in Australia. This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. In producing research reports, members of the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs Australia may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the companies and other entities which are the subject of its research reports. In some instances the costs of such site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Goldman Sachs Australia considers it is appropriate and reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to the site visit or meeting. To the extent that the contents of this document contains any financial product advice, it is general advice only and has been prepared by Goldman Sachs without taking into account a client's objectives, financial situation or needs. A client should, before acting on any such advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to the client's own objectives, financial situation and needs. A copy of certain Goldman Sachs Australia and New Zealand disclosure of interests and a copy of Goldman Sachs’ Australian Sell-Side Research Independence Policy Statement are available at: https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.htmlBrazil: Disclosure information in relation to CVM Instruction 598 is available at https://www.gs.com/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html. Where applicable, the Brazil-registered analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, as defined in Article 20 of CVM Instruction 598, is the first author named at the beginning of this report, unless indicated otherwise at the end of the text.  Canada: Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. is an affiliate of The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and therefore is included in the company specific disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs (as defined above). Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research report in Canada if and to the extent that Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. disseminates this research report to its clients.  Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.  India: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited, Research Analyst - SEBI Registration Number INH000001493, 951-A, Rational House, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025, India, Corporate Identity Number U74140MH2006FTC160634, Phone +91 22 6616 9000, Fax +91 22 6616 9001. Goldman Sachs may beneficially own 1% or more of the securities (as such term is defined in clause 2 (h) the Indian Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956) of the subject company or companies referred to in this research report.  Japan: See below.  Korea: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "professional investors" within the meaning of the Financial Services and Capital Markets Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch.  New Zealand: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited and its affiliates are neither "registered banks" nor "deposit takers" (as defined in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989) in New Zealand. This research, and any access to it, is intended for "wholesale clients" (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008) unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. A copy of certain Goldman Sachs Australia and New Zealand disclosure of interests is available at: https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.htmlRussia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Research reports do not constitute a personalized investment recommendation as defined in Russian laws and regulations, are not addressed to a specific client, and are prepared without analyzing the financial circumstances, investment profiles or risk profiles of clients. Goldman Sachs assumes no responsibility for any investment decisions that may be taken by a client or any other person based on this research report.  Singapore: Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W), which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, accepts legal responsibility for this research, and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this research.  Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor.  United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. 

European Union and United Kingdom: Disclosure information in relation to Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) (2016/958) supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council (including as that Delegated Regulation is implemented into United Kingdom domestic law and regulation following the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union and the European Economic Area) with regard to regulatory technical standards for the technical arrangements for objective presentation of investment recommendations or other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for disclosure of particular interests or indications of conflicts of interest is available at https://www.gs.com/disclosures/europeanpolicy.html which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research. 

Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau under registration number Kinsho 69, and a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. 

Global product; distributing entities

The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 21 006 797 897); in Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.; Ombudsman Goldman Sachs Brazil: 0800 727 5764 and / or ouvidoriagoldmansachs@gs.com. Available Weekdays (except holidays), from 9am to 6pm. Ouvidoria Goldman Sachs Brasil: 0800 727 5764 e/ou ouvidoriagoldmansachs@gs.com. Horário de funcionamento: segunda-feira à sexta-feira (exceto feriados), das 9h às 18h; in Canada by either Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. or Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: 198602165W); and in the United States of America by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union.

European Union: Goldman Sachs International authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom.

Effective from the date of the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union and the European Economic Area (“Brexit Day”) the following information with respect to distributing entities will apply:

Goldman Sachs International (“GSI”), authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (“PRA”) and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and the PRA, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom.

European Economic Area: GSI, authorised by the PRA and regulated by the FCA and the PRA, disseminates research in the following jurisdictions within the European Economic Area: the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Italy, the Kingdom of Belgium, the Kingdom of Denmark, the Kingdom of Norway, the Republic of Finland, Portugal, the Republic of Cyprus and the Republic of Ireland; GS -Succursale de Paris (Paris branch) which, from Brexit Day, will be authorised by the French Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (“ACPR”) and regulated by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution and the Autorité des marches financiers (“AMF”) disseminates research in France; GSI - Sucursal en España (Madrid branch) authorized in Spain by the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores disseminates research in the Kingdom of Spain; GSI - Sweden Bankfilial (Stockholm branch) is authorized by the SFSA as a “third country branch” in accordance with Chapter 4, Section 4 of the Swedish Securities and Market Act (Sw. lag (2007:528) om värdepappersmarknaden) disseminates research in the Kingdom of Sweden; Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE (“GSBE”) is a credit institution incorporated in Germany and, within the Single Supervisory Mechanism, subject to direct prudential supervision by the European Central Bank and in other respects supervised by German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, BaFin) and Deutsche Bundesbank and disseminates research in the Federal Republic of Germany and those jurisdictions within the European Economic Area where GSI is not authorised to disseminate research and additionally, GSBE, Copenhagen Branch filial af GSBE, Tyskland, supervised by the Danish Financial Authority disseminates research in the Kingdom of Denmark; GSBE - Sucursal en España (Madrid branch) subject (to a limited extent) to local supervision by the Bank of Spain disseminates research in the Kingdom of Spain; GSBE - Succursale Italia (Milan branch) to the relevant applicable extent, subject to local supervision by the Bank of Italy (Banca d’Italia) and the Italian Companies and Exchange Commission (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa “Consob”) disseminates research in Italy; GSBE - Succursale de Paris (Paris branch), supervised by the AMF and by the ACPR disseminates research in France; and GSBE - Sweden Bankfilial (Stockholm branch), to a limited extent, subject to local supervision by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinpektionen) disseminates research in the Kingdom of Sweden.

General disclosures

This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment.

Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC (https://www.sipc.org).

Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and principal trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, principal trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research.

We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research, unless otherwise prohibited by regulation or Goldman Sachs policy.

The views attributed to third party presenters at Goldman Sachs arranged conferences, including individuals from other parts of Goldman Sachs, do not necessarily reflect those of Global Investment Research and are not an official view of Goldman Sachs.

Any third party referenced herein, including any salespeople, traders and other professionals or members of their household, may have positions in the products mentioned that are inconsistent with the views expressed by analysts named in this report.

This research is focused on investment themes across markets, industries and sectors. It does not attempt to distinguish between the prospects or performance of, or provide analysis of, individual companies within any industry or sector we describe.

Any trading recommendation in this research relating to an equity or credit security or securities within an industry or sector is reflective of the investment theme being discussed and is not a recommendation of any such security in isolation.

This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments.

Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options and futures disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at https://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp and https://www.fiadocumentation.org/fia/regulatory-disclosures_1/fia-uniform-futures-and-options-on-futures-risk-disclosures-booklet-pdf-version-2018. Transaction costs may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request.

Differing Levels of Service provided by Global Investment Research: The level and types of services provided to you by the Global Investment Research division of GS may vary as compared to that provided to internal and other external clients of GS, depending on various factors including your individual preferences as to the frequency and manner of receiving communication, your risk profile and investment focus and perspective (e.g., marketwide, sector specific, long term, short term), the size and scope of your overall client relationship with GS, and legal and regulatory constraints. As an example, certain clients may request to receive notifications when research on specific securities is published, and certain clients may request that specific data underlying analysts’ fundamental analysis available on our internal client websites be delivered to them electronically through data feeds or otherwise. No change to an analyst’s fundamental research views (e.g., ratings, price targets, or material changes to earnings estimates for equity securities), will be communicated to any client prior to inclusion of such information in a research report broadly disseminated through electronic publication to our internal client websites or through other means, as necessary, to all clients who are entitled to receive such reports.

All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For research, models or other data related to one or more securities, markets or asset classes (including related services) that may be available to you, please contact your GS representative or go to https://research.gs.com.

Disclosure information is also available at https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html or from Research Compliance, 200 West Street, New York, NY 10282.

© 2021 Goldman Sachs.

No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.