Global vaccinations were largely in line with our expectations in June, with Asia outperforming expectations. We upgraded our global production estimate to 13.1 bn doses by year-end (vs. 12.4 bn a month ago) following upside surprises from Chinese producers.

The share of the world population with a first dose rose by 7pp to 25% in June, reflecting progress in North Asia, Western Europe, and India and should reach 34% by the end of July, although daily vaccinations are likely peaking. We still look for 50% of the world to be vaccinated with a first dose in November.

Among DMs, all of the big four European countries vaccinated 50% of their populations with a first dose in June, as we had expected. Canada accelerated further (second doses) while the US (demand saturation) and the UK (mRNA supply constraints) slowed. Japan’s acceleration stood out in June, and we expect the pace to increase further as supply remains very strong. Australia’s acceleration was also strong, albeit slightly disappointing by the end of the month, but vaccinations should pick up with Pfizer deliveries in coming months. We still expect 50% of the population to be vaccinated with a first dose in late August in Japan and early September in Australia.

The pace of vaccinations among many EMs picked up in late June as supply constraints eased. China again led the pack, meeting its goal to vaccinate 40% of the population fully by the end of June. Vaccinations also picked up in Brazil (34% first dose) and India (20%), were moderate in Mexico (24%) and slow but increasing in Russia (16%) and South Africa (5%). We significantly upgraded our timelines for Russia, following government vaccine mandates, and much of South (East) Asia where distribution has been quicker than expected.

We expect 50% of the population to receive a first dose in early July in China (unchanged), early August in Brazil (mid-August previously), mid-September in Mexico (late August), late October in India (December), November in Russia (2022), and early 2022 in South Africa (December). Across most other supply-constrained EMs, vaccinations should pick up in coming months.

Combining these vaccination timelines with estimates of infections, we estimate that our total immunity proxy has already hit 60% in the US, UK, and India, and will hit 60% in July in the EU and Brazil, October in Russia, November in China, and December in Japan.