US Weekly Kickstart
Looking at equity performance ahead of elections: The 2024 Presidential election is only 12 months away!
The US presidential primary season officially begins on January 15th with the Iowa Republican caucuses. By March 12th about half the Democratic and Republican delegates will have been selected. Equity returns tend to be weaker than average in presidential election years. Since 1932, the S&P 500 index has returned an average of 7% during the 12 months preceding the election vs. 9% outside of election years. However, election year returns have averaged only 4% since 1984. Profit growth is typically strong in election years while valuations move sideways. Info Tech has usually been the worst performing sector in the year ahead of the election. Defensive sectors tend to perform best, led by Utilities and Consumer Staples.
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