We expected and indeed received a large “January effect” in last week’s price data, with CPI and PPI both surprising consensus to the upside. In our view, the bigger surprise was the 0.56% spike in owners’ equivalent rents (OER), which outperformed the primary rent measure by the most since 1995. In this edition of the Analyst, we explore the scope for OER to continue to outperform and the implications of the January price data for the inflation and policy outlook.
In principle, the rebound in the single-family housing market and the unaffordability of homebuying could drive a positive wedge between OER and rent growth. Exploring this possibility using Zillow, Yardi, and Corelogic data, we find that the outperformance of single-family rent growth is fairly moderate—around +2pp annualized—and we estimate that this gap explains less than a quarter of the January OER spike. Simply put, January OER rose 7% in annualized terms but single-family rent growth is running at less than half that pace. We also do not find a clear relationship in the city-level cross section between January OER and single-family home price appreciation.
We believe single-family housing strength is a reason to expect OER to outperform rent CPI this year, but by nowhere close to 20bp per month. We assume a 4bp monthly boost to OER from this channel over the remainder of 2024, and we are boosting our December 2024 PCE housing inflation forecast by 0.4pp to 4.3% (yoy).
We are not too concerned about the strength elsewhere in the January CPI and PPI reports. January price changes tend to be cyclical and volatile—what we call the “January effect”—and usually, sequential inflation slows back down in February. We had already assumed a January effect in healthcare—where the lag between costs and prices is particularly long. Additionally, 3- and 6-month trimmed inflation remained rangebound in January, despite a boost from the January effect. Taken together, we are boosting our 2024 core PCE forecast only modestly, by 0.1pp to 2.3% (December yoy).
The January FOMC statement indicates that rate cuts will likely commence once inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. If inflation evolves as we expect, core PCE inflation would fall to 2.5% at the time of the May meeting, and participants would likely anticipate further declines over the next two months given the high base effects in mid-2023. Accordingly, we continue to forecast five 25bp cuts in the Fed funds rate this year, with the first cut at the May meeting. This being said, last week’s price data raise the stakes for the February CPI and PPI reports to confirm that the January jump in OER and non-housing services were both temporary.
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