Inflation: here today, gone tomorrow?
November 17, 2021
Sharp upside inflation surprises that have pushed US inflation to 30+-year highs have fueled concerns that “temporary” pandemic-related inflationary pressures could prove persistent, raising the risk of a damaging wage-price spiral that could force the Fed into a costly tightening cycle. Where inflation goes from here—and what that means for the economy, monetary policy, interest rates and assets—is Top of Mind. We (again) put Jan Hatzius in the hot seat, who maintains that inflationary pressures will gradually subside later next year as commodity prices stabilize and durable goods prices reverse some of their previous run-up, in the context of a seamless transition from Fed tapering to rate hikes in mid-2022.

Europe at a Crossroads
October 18, 2021
The Euro area's unprecedented program of fiscal risk sharing in response to the pandemic, and a new, likely less fiscally conservative ruling coalition in Germany, looks set to put the region on a path towards increased integration, higher growth, and better investor returns. But whether the current moment will go down as a seized—or (another) missed—opportunity for Euro area integration and growth is Top of Mind.